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What will be the outcome of Iran-Syria diplomatic relations by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthened relations • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Diplomatic fallout • 25%
Official statements from both governments or reports from credible news agencies
Story
Iran Evacuates Quds Force, IRGC, and Embassy Staff from Syria as Assad's Regime Falters
Dec 7, 2024, 01:03 AM
Iran has begun evacuating its military personnel, including senior Quds Force commanders, from Syria, according to reports from The New York Times. This move signals Iran's assessment that it is unable to help maintain President Bashar al-Assad's grip on power amid a resurgent rebel offensive. The evacuation includes not only military officials but also IRGC personnel, embassy staff, diplomatic staff, and their families, as well as some civilians. The decision to withdraw comes as rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, have made significant advances in Aleppo, Hama, and Deir al-Zour, putting increased pressure on Assad's regime. Iran's retreat is seen as an extraordinary development, given Syria's strategic importance to Iran's regional ambitions.
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Strengthened relations • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Improved • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Deteriorated • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Decreased Iranian influence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other regional power gains influence • 25%
Improved relations with Iran • 25%
Improved relations with Western countries • 25%
Strained relations with neighboring countries • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Informal cooperation agreements • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Hostile relations develop • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Increased military support for Syrian government • 25%
No significant diplomatic outcome • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Improved Relations • 25%
Deteriorated Relations • 25%
No Change • 25%
Severed Relations • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Reduced cooperation • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
No negotiations held • 25%
