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Market
What will be the outcome of SpaceX's rescue mission by the end of 2025?
2
SpaceX•NASA•International Space Station•ISS•Sunita Williams•Butch Wilmore•Boeing•Starliner•Cape Canaveral•Florida•Falcon rocket•Dragon•Earth
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful return with no issues • 25%
Successful return with minor issues • 25%
Successful return with major issues • 25%
Unsuccessful return • 25%
NASA and SpaceX official announcements
Story
SpaceX Launches Mission to Rescue Stranded NASA Astronauts Sunita Williams and Butch Wilmore
Sep 28, 2024, 05:49 PM
SpaceX has launched a mission to rescue two NASA astronauts who have been stranded on the International Space Station (ISS) since June 2024. The astronauts, Sunita Williams and Butch Wilmore, originally traveled to the ISS aboard Boeing's Starliner spacecraft, which has faced multiple issues. The rescue mission, launched from Cape Canaveral, Florida, involves a Falcon rocket carrying a downsized crew and two empty seats on a Dragon capsule that will eventually bring the astronauts back to Earth in 2025. The mission is critical as it aims to safely return the astronauts after an unexpected extended stay in orbit.
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Similar markets
Successful rescue by SpaceX • 25%
Rescue delayed beyond February 2025 • 25%
Rescue attempt fails • 25%
Alternative rescue mission initiated • 25%
Successful return on first attempt • 25%
Successful return after initial delay • 25%
Mission failure • 25%
Mission postponed beyond March 31, 2025 • 25%
Successful launch and safe return • 25%
Successful launch but return delayed • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful return of both astronauts • 25%
Partial success (one astronaut returns) • 25%
Mission delayed • 25%
Mission failure • 25%
Successful launch and landing • 25%
Successful launch, failed landing • 25%
Failed launch • 25%
Mission delayed • 25%
Successful Deployment • 25%
Delayed Deployment • 25%
Canceled • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful orbit insertion • 25%
Partial success (e.g., suborbital flight) • 25%
Failure (e.g., explosion or termination) • 25%
Launch postponed beyond 2025 • 25%
Successful launch and satellite deployment • 25%
Launch failure during ascent • 25%
Launch failure after liftoff but before orbit • 25%
Launch postponed or canceled • 25%
Negotiation • 25%
Legal action • 25%
Third-party mediation • 25%
Unresolved • 25%
Successful launch and landing • 25%
Successful launch, failed landing • 25%
Failed launch • 25%
Mission delayed • 25%