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Market
What will be the outcome of the astronauts' rescue mission by February 2025?
2
NASA•SpaceX•Sunita Williams•Butch Wilmore•International Space Station•ISS•Boeing•Starliner•Crew Dragon•America
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful rescue by SpaceX • 25%
Rescue delayed beyond February 2025 • 25%
Rescue attempt fails • 25%
Alternative rescue mission initiated • 25%
Official NASA and SpaceX announcements
Story
NASA Chooses SpaceX Over Boeing Starliner to Rescue Astronauts by February 2025
Aug 27, 2024, 11:00 PM
NASA has selected SpaceX to rescue two astronauts, Sunita Williams and Butch Wilmore, who have been stranded on the International Space Station (ISS) for 81 days due to Boeing's Starliner spacecraft being deemed unsafe for their return. The astronauts have been on the ISS since June, and their mission has been extended until February 2025. Boeing's Starliner was initially intended to bring them back, but technical issues, including propulsion and parachute problems, have led NASA to opt for SpaceX's Crew Dragon capsule for their return. This decision underscores SpaceX's growing influence in America's space endeavors, as NASA turns to the company for a reliable solution.
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Similar markets
Successful return with no issues • 25%
Successful return with minor issues • 25%
Successful return with major issues • 25%
Unsuccessful return • 25%
Successful return on first attempt • 25%
Successful return after initial delay • 25%
Mission failure • 25%
Mission postponed beyond March 31, 2025 • 25%
Successful return of both astronauts • 25%
Partial success (one astronaut returns) • 25%
Mission delayed • 25%
Mission failure • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
All astronauts return safely • 25%
Some astronauts return safely • 25%
No astronauts return safely • 25%
Mission extended beyond 2024 • 25%
All astronauts • 25%
Most astronauts • 25%
Some astronauts • 25%
No astronauts • 25%
Mission completed successfully • 25%
Mission aborted early • 25%
Mission extended • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful launch and safe return • 25%
Successful launch but return delayed • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Other • 25%
Mission successful with all objectives met • 25%
Mission successful with partial objectives met • 25%
Mission aborted • 25%
Mission failure • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
SpaceX Dragon used • 25%
Boeing Starliner used • 25%
Other spacecraft used • 25%
Astronauts remain on ISS • 25%
Successful launch and mission • 25%
Launch delayed • 25%
Mission failure • 25%
Mission cancelled • 25%