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What will be the outcome of SpaceX's first crewed mission to Mars in 2028?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful launch and landing • 25%
Successful launch, failed landing • 25%
Failed launch • 25%
Mission delayed • 25%
Official announcements from SpaceX or NASA, media reports
Story
SpaceX to Launch First Uncrewed Starships to Mars in 2026, Crewed Missions in 2028
Sep 7, 2024, 11:29 PM
Elon Musk has announced that SpaceX plans to launch its first uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years, during the next Earth-Mars transfer window in 2026. These initial missions aim to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If successful, the first crewed flights to Mars are scheduled to follow in 2028. The long-term goal is to establish a self-sustaining city on Mars within approximately 20 years.
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Successful landing • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Mission aborted • 25%
Successful landing • 25%
Partial success (e.g., landing but with damage) • 25%
Failure (e.g., crash landing) • 25%
Mission aborted • 25%
1-2 astronauts • 25%
3-4 astronauts • 25%
5-6 astronauts • 25%
7 or more astronauts • 25%
Successful return on first attempt • 25%
Successful return after initial delay • 25%
Mission failure • 25%
Mission postponed beyond March 31, 2025 • 25%
Successful return with no issues • 25%
Successful return with minor issues • 25%
Successful return with major issues • 25%
Unsuccessful return • 25%
Scientific research • 25%
Establishing a base • 25%
Resource extraction • 25%
Other • 25%