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What will be the outcome of protests against Maduro by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Protests lead to leadership change • 25%
Protests subside with no change • 25%
Protests escalate into conflict • 25%
News reports and official statements regarding the status and impact of protests
Story
Maduro Sworn In Amid Protests, Arrests; Opposition's González Urrutia Claims Presidency
Jan 10, 2025, 12:45 PM
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has been sworn in for a third term on January 10, 2025, amid protests from the opposition and allegations of electoral fraud in the July election. Thousands of opposition supporters have taken to the streets to protest against Maduro's inauguration, supporting opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia, who claims he won the election and vows to return to Venezuela to take office. The inauguration at the National Assembly took place under heavy military and police presence, following a new wave of arrests of opposition figures. The international community has widely condemned Maduro's new term, with many countries refusing to recognize his presidency and not attending the ceremony. Meanwhile, some foreign leaders, such as Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, have arrived in Venezuela to support Maduro's inauguration, which will extend his rule until 2031.
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Protests increase • 25%
Protests remain steady • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%
Protests end • 25%
Protests result in significant international sanctions • 25%
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Protests are suppressed without major outcomes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Major violence with fatalities • 25%
Significant clashes with injuries • 25%
Minor clashes, no major incidents • 25%
Peaceful with no incidents • 25%
Protests lead to increased government crackdown • 25%
Protests lead to negotiations • 25%
Protests dissipate without significant change • 25%
Other significant outcome • 25%
Protests remain the same • 25%
Protests end completely • 25%
Protests increase • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%
Protests subside with Maduro in power • 25%
Protests lead to negotiations • 25%
Protests escalate into violence • 25%
Protests subside with González in power • 25%
Opposition gains significant political concessions • 25%
Other • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
New elections announced • 25%
Edmundo González becomes president • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Nicolás Maduro remains president • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
Peaceful with no incidents • 25%
Cancelled or postponed • 25%
Minor confrontations reported • 25%
Major confrontations and violence • 25%