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What will be the level of protests in Venezuela by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Protests increase • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%
Protests remain the same • 25%
Protests end completely • 25%
Reports from credible international and local media outlets
Story
Maduro Sworn In Before Assembly for Third Term Until 2031 Amid Fraud Claims
Jan 10, 2025, 03:01 PM
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was sworn in before the National Assembly on Friday for a third six-year term, extending his rule until 2031, despite widespread accusations of electoral fraud and international condemnation. The opposition, led by Edmundo González, who claims to have won the July 28, 2024 presidential election, has presented credible evidence of vote rigging and threatened to hold a rival inauguration in Caracas. Maduro proceeded with the ceremony without releasing the electoral records that would verify his victory. "I swear that this new presidential term will be a term of peace," Maduro declared during the inauguration. Protests erupted across the country, with thousands demonstrating on the eve of the ceremony. While facing criticism both domestically and internationally, Maduro retains the support of the military and key institutions in Venezuela.
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Protests lead to leadership change • 25%
Protests escalate into conflict • 25%
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Protests subside with no change • 25%
Protests remain steady • 25%
Protests end • 25%
Protests increase • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%
Protests lead to negotiations • 25%
Protests subside with Maduro in power • 25%
Protests subside with González in power • 25%
Protests escalate into violence • 25%
Dialogue with opposition • 25%
Increased repression • 25%
Other significant response • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Protests result in significant international sanctions • 25%
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Protests are suppressed without major outcomes • 25%
Significant clashes with injuries • 25%
Peaceful with no incidents • 25%
Minor clashes, no major incidents • 25%
Major violence with fatalities • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
Other • 25%
New elections announced • 25%
Opposition gains significant political concessions • 25%