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Which major power will recognize Maduro's presidency by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
United States • 25%
European Union • 25%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
Official statements from the respective governments
Story
Maduro Sworn In Amid Protests, Arrests; Opposition's González Urrutia Claims Presidency
Jan 10, 2025, 12:45 PM
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has been sworn in for a third term on January 10, 2025, amid protests from the opposition and allegations of electoral fraud in the July election. Thousands of opposition supporters have taken to the streets to protest against Maduro's inauguration, supporting opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia, who claims he won the election and vows to return to Venezuela to take office. The inauguration at the National Assembly took place under heavy military and police presence, following a new wave of arrests of opposition figures. The international community has widely condemned Maduro's new term, with many countries refusing to recognize his presidency and not attending the ceremony. Meanwhile, some foreign leaders, such as Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, have arrived in Venezuela to support Maduro's inauguration, which will extend his rule until 2031.
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Similar markets
Other diplomatic changes • 25%
More countries recognize Maduro • 25%
More countries withdraw recognition • 25%
Recognition status remains largely unchanged • 25%
Other • 25%
Partially recognized • 25%
Widely recognized • 25%
Not recognized • 25%
Brazil • 25%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Conditional recognition • 25%
Not recognized • 25%
Recognized • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Cuba • 25%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
More than 20 countries • 25%
11 to 20 countries • 25%
Less than 5 countries • 25%
5 to 10 countries • 25%
González recognized by majority • 25%
Maduro recognized by majority • 25%
No clear majority recognition • 25%
Other outcome • 25%