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What will be the outcome of North Korea's alleged troop involvement in Ukraine by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Confirmed troop presence • 25%
No troop presence confirmed • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Inconclusive or unresolved • 25%
Reports or official statements from international bodies or governments
Story
North Korea Denies 'Groundless' Claims of Sending Troops to Ukraine; Pentagon Cannot Confirm Reports
Oct 22, 2024, 12:35 AM
Reports have surfaced alleging that North Korea is sending troops to support Russia in its war against Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov addressed these reports, noting that there is "a lot of contradictory information," adding that "cooperation between Russia and the DPRK is not directed against third countries." He refrained from confirming or denying the claims. The Pentagon chief stated that he cannot confirm these reports. In response, North Korea has officially denied the allegations, with a representative to the United Nations dismissing them as "groundless rumors" and "baseless," characterizing them as "stereotypical rumors aimed at tarnishing the image" of the country. North Korea emphasized that its cooperation with Russia is "legitimate and cooperative." Russia has defended its ties with North Korea but declined to clarify the situation regarding the potential deployment of North Korean soldiers to Ukraine.
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Withdrawal without combat • 25%
Engagement in combat • 25%
Captured by Ukrainian forces • 25%
No deployment • 25%
Increased troop deployment • 25%
Withdrawal of troops • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Military alliance expanded • 25%
Increased military support from North Korea • 25%
Withdrawal of North Korean troops • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
Increased conflict intensity • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
De-escalation and troop withdrawal • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Significant strategic advantage for Russia • 25%
Minimal impact on conflict • 25%
Increased tensions with other nations • 25%
Withdrawal of North Korean troops • 25%
North Korean withdrawal • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Troops remain in Ukraine • 25%
Troops withdrawn • 25%
Troops increase • 25%
Other • 25%
Full Withdrawal • 25%
Continued Presence • 25%
Escalation of Conflict • 25%
Limited Engagement • 25%
Full-scale combat participation • 25%
Limited support role • 25%
Withdrawal before combat • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant impact • 25%
Moderate impact • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
No engagement • 25%
North Korean troops fully withdrawn • 25%
North Korean troops remain in support of Russia • 25%
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Engage in combat • 25%
Remain in training • 25%
Withdraw from region • 25%
Other • 25%
Direct combat in Ukraine • 25%
Support role without direct combat • 25%
Withdrawal without engagement • 25%
Other • 25%