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What changes will occur in OpenAI-Microsoft partnership by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
AGI clause removed, no additional changes • 25%
AGI clause removed, increased Microsoft investment • 25%
AGI clause remains, increased collaboration in other areas • 25%
No change in the partnership agreement • 25%
Official announcements from OpenAI or Microsoft, or credible reports from financial news outlets
Story
OpenAI Seeks to Unlock Funding by Ditching AGI Clause with Microsoft
Dec 6, 2024, 12:21 PM
OpenAI is reportedly in discussions to remove a clause in its agreement with Microsoft that limits Microsoft's access to OpenAI's most advanced AI models upon achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This move is aimed at unlocking further investment from Microsoft, according to the Financial Times. The clause in question would allow OpenAI's board to determine when AGI is achieved, potentially restricting Microsoft's access to these models. The removal of this 'AGI clause' could facilitate a more open partnership, enabling Microsoft to leverage OpenAI's cutting-edge AI technology for its own products and services.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Investment increases • 25%
Investment withdrawn • 25%
Investment remains unchanged • 25%
Investment decreases • 25%
No change in share • 25%
Decreased share for Microsoft • 25%
Increased share for Microsoft • 25%
Revenue share discontinued • 25%
Other structural change • 25%
Hybrid model • 25%
Remains non-profit • 25%
Fully transitions to for-profit • 25%
Remains a non-profit • 25%
Other restructuring • 25%
Delaware Public Benefit Corporation • 25%
Traditional for-profit corporation • 25%
Partnership terminated • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Partnership expanded • 25%
Successful product integration • 25%
Decision postponed beyond 2025 • 25%
Adopts a different structure • 25%
Successfully restructures into a PBC • 25%
Remains as current structure • 25%