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What will be the outcome of Marco Rubio's diplomatic efforts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Peace settlement reached • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Official outcomes reported by the U.S. State Department or credible international news agencies
Story
Trump Nominee Rubio Urges End to Russia-Ukraine War, Calls for Bold Diplomacy and Concessions
Jan 15, 2025, 04:09 PM
Marco Rubio, nominated by President-elect Donald Trump to be the U.S. Secretary of State, has called for the Russia-Ukraine war to end, stating it should be the official policy of the United States. Rubio emphasized the need for 'bold diplomacy' to achieve a ceasefire and ultimately a peace settlement, acknowledging that both Russia and Ukraine will need to make concessions. He highlighted the difficulty in ending the conflict without leverage for both sides, and noted the unsustainable loss of life in Ukraine, stating, 'The problem that Ukraine is facing is not that they're running out of money, it's that they're running out of Ukrainians.' Rubio also mentioned that it is unrealistic for Ukraine to push Russia back to its pre-February 2022 positions, indicating a need for a realistic approach to peace negotiations. Rubio described the war as unacceptable but necessary to end.
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No significant progress • 25%
Escalation in conflict • 25%
Peace settlement achieved • 25%
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Environmental treaty • 25%
Trade agreement • 25%
Human rights advocacy • 25%
Military alliance • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Delayed beyond June 30, 2025 • 25%
Withdrawn • 25%
Confirmed • 25%
Withdrawn • 25%
Delayed • 25%
Confirmed • 25%
Not Confirmed • 25%
Human rights • 25%
Cybersecurity • 25%
Trade relations • 25%
Military alliances • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Unfavorable • 25%
Favorable • 25%
No Opinion • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Preliminary talks only • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No progress • 25%
Somewhat unfavorable • 25%
Very favorable • 25%
Very unfavorable • 25%
Somewhat favorable • 25%
European alliances • 25%
Other • 25%
China relations • 25%
Middle East policy • 25%