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What will be the outcome of Israel's small-scale operations against Hezbollah by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Operations successfully destroy Hezbollah border sites • 25%
Operations partially successful • 25%
Operations fail • 25%
Operations lead to escalation • 25%
Verified reports from major news outlets such as ABC News, Reuters, or official statements from the Israeli government or Hezbollah
Story
Israel Begins Small-Scale Operations Against Hezbollah on Lebanon Border, US Officials Say
Sep 29, 2024, 03:38 AM
According to two U.S. officials cited by ABC News, Israel has begun or is about to begin small-scale operations or 'border movements' into Lebanon to target Hezbollah positions along the border. The operations aim to destroy Hezbollah sites situated right on the border. While Israel has not yet fully decided on a ground operation, it is prepared for one. Israel has not confirmed these reports.
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Decisive victory for Israel • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah strengthens • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Israeli military achieves significant territorial gains • 25%
Hezbollah successfully defends its positions • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah moderately weakened • 25%
Hezbollah remains strong • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Hezbollah military capabilities significantly reduced • 25%
Minimal impact on Hezbollah • 25%
Hezbollah retaliates effectively • 25%
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Successful ground invasion and significant degradation of Hezbollah • 25%
Limited ground invasion with minor impact on Hezbollah • 25%
No ground invasion but continued airstrikes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Significant reduction in Hezbollah's activities • 25%
Continued low-level skirmishes • 25%
Escalation to full-scale conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah gains strength • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-level skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
Full-Scale War • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Hezbollah disarmed • 25%
Israel withdraws • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-level skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-intensity conflict • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Other • 25%