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What will be the outcome of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-level skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Verified news reports from reputable sources (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera)
Story
Israel Notified U.S. Before Strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon
Aug 25, 2024, 03:32 AM
Israel conducted preemptive strikes against Hezbollah missile and rocket sites in Southern Lebanon, notifying the United States in advance. A senior Israeli official confirmed that Israel informed the U.S. before the strikes. The Israeli Minister of Defense also communicated with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin regarding the operation. However, there are conflicting reports, with a senior U.S. official stating to the New York Times that the U.S. was not informed beforehand.
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-intensity conflict • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Other • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-level skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
Full-Scale War • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Hezbollah disarmed • 25%
Israel withdraws • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Full-scale War • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Hezbollah Victory • 25%
IDF Victory • 25%
No conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale War • 25%
International Mediation • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Hostilities • 25%
Major Victory for Israel • 25%
Major Victory for Hezbollah • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
Full-Scale War • 25%
Other • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Israel victory • 33%
Hezbollah victory • 33%
Stalemate/No clear victor • 33%
Continued skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Resolution through diplomatic means • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Conflict continues with no resolution • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Israeli withdrawal without agreement • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Escalation to wider regional conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%