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What will be the outcome for Syrian soldiers in Iraq by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Returned to Syria • 25%
Granted asylum in Iraq • 25%
Transferred to a third country • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from Iraqi government and international organizations
Story
Around 2,000 Syrian Soldiers Cross into Iraq via Al-Qaim Border, Iraqi Officials Confirm
Dec 7, 2024, 02:38 PM
On Saturday, December 7, 2024, hundreds of Syrian soldiers crossed into Iraq via the Al-Qaim border crossing, with numbers increasing to around 2,000 by day's end, according to local officials, the Iraqi News Agency, and security sources cited by Reuters. The soldiers entered in coordination with Iraqi forces, with some reportedly wounded and receiving medical treatment. Turki Al-Mahlawi, the mayor of the border town of Al-Qaim, confirmed that the troops sought refuge in Iraq amid escalating conflict in Syria. The mass crossing follows advances by rebel and jihadist forces in southern Syria, leading to a rapid deterioration of the military situation for Syrian government forces.
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Other outcome • 25%
Troops remain • 25%
Troops withdrawn • 25%
Troops increased • 25%
Provide asylum • 25%
Transfer to a third country • 25%
Repatriate to Syria • 25%
Detain indefinitely • 25%
Syrian army regains significant territory • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Rebels gain more territory • 25%
Rebel forces gain ground • 25%
Decisive victory for Syrian government • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Interim government • 25%
New leader from Assad's party • 25%
Bashar al-Assad remains in power • 25%
Opposition leader takes power • 25%
Rebels gain control over northeast Syria • 25%
Syrian army regains control • 25%
Stalemate between rebels and Syrian army • 25%
Foreign intervention changes control dynamics • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Granted asylum elsewhere • 25%
Imprisoned • 25%
Reintegrated into Syrian military • 25%
Captured by rebels • 25%
Remains in Syria • 25%
Flees to Iraq • 25%
Flees to Russia • 25%
Majority granted amnesty • 25%
Other • 25%
Mixed outcomes • 25%
Majority face prosecution • 25%