Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of international mediation efforts in the South Lebanon conflict by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Stalemate • 25%
Escalation of Conflict • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Official statements from involved parties or international bodies such as the UN or EU
Story
Hezbollah Prepares for Prolonged War in South Lebanon with New Command After Israeli Strikes
Oct 11, 2024, 11:46 AM
Hezbollah is preparing for a prolonged war of attrition in south Lebanon after Israel wiped out its top leadership. A new military command has been established to oversee rocket strikes and ground combat operations. Despite the severe damage to its command structure, Hezbollah still has a considerable stockpile of weapons. The new command is directing the conflict, which includes both rocket fire and ground fighting, according to Reuters.
View original story
Similar markets
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued military operations • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful mediation • 25%
Unsuccessful mediation • 25%
Mediation ongoing • 25%
No mediation initiated • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation to a larger conflict • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations failed • 25%
Temporary ceasefire, but no formal agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
United States • 25%
France • 25%
Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire holds completely • 25%
Minor violations occur • 25%
Major conflict resumes • 25%
Ceasefire officially ends • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Ongoing discussions • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
No official talks • 25%