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What will be the outcome of high-level diplomatic talks related to the Kursk conflict by October 1, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Verified reports from major news outlets and official government statements
Story
Ukraine Advances in Kursk, Russia Redeploys 5,000 Troops; Putin Orders Retake by Oct 1
Aug 20, 2024, 12:25 PM
The ongoing conflict in Russia's Kursk region has intensified as Ukraine continues its incursion that began on August 6, 2024. In response, Russia has redeployed 5,000 military personnel to the area and is reportedly moving troops from other regions to bolster its defenses. Ukrainian forces have advanced 28-35 kilometers and captured 93 settlements in the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the expulsion of Ukrainian forces from Kursk by October 1, without diverting resources from other key areas where Russia is conducting offensives.
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Successful ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement on specific issues • 25%
Talks postponed indefinitely • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Talks fail, conflict continues • 25%
No significant talks held • 25%
Another prisoner exchange • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace talks • 25%
No significant diplomatic effort • 25%
No significant outcome • 33%
Increased military coordination • 33%
Increased tensions • 33%
Increased sanctions on Russia • 25%
Increased military aid to Ukraine • 25%
Mediation and peace talks • 25%
Other • 25%
Agreement to de-escalate military activities • 25%
Continuation of current policies • 25%
Imposition of new sanctions • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Increased Sanctions on Russia • 25%
Humanitarian Aid Agreement • 25%
Talks successful, no arms provided • 25%
Talks fail, arms provided • 25%
Talks ongoing, no decision • 25%
Talks fail, no arms provided • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Partial Withdrawal • 25%
Full Withdrawal • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, tensions remain • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Talks lead to de-escalation • 25%
Talks lead to increased tensions • 25%
Talks result in new sanctions • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%