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What will be the outcome of Hezbollah's retaliation strategy by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful with significant damage • 25%
Partial success with minor damage • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
No retaliation • 25%
Verified reports from major news outlets such as Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
Hezbollah's Nasrallah on Retaliation Strategy After Fuad Shukr's Killing, Targets Military Sites
Aug 25, 2024, 03:24 PM
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah stated that the group decided not to retaliate against Israel by targeting civilian areas following the killing of top commander Fuad Shukr. Instead, Hezbollah aimed to target military sites near Tel Aviv. The decision was influenced by the mass mobilization of Israeli and American military forces and a desire to allow negotiations to proceed. Nasrallah emphasized that Hezbollah's actions were intended to avoid civilian casualties and focus on military and intelligence targets, including deep inside Tel Aviv at the Glilot base.
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Escalation of conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No retaliation • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah moderately weakened • 25%
Hezbollah remains strong • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Hezbollah gains territory • 25%
Israel gains territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial change • 25%
Ceasefire without territorial change • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Hezbollah weakens • 25%
Significant civilian casualties • 25%
Significant military casualties • 25%
Both civilian and military casualties • 25%
Minimal or no casualties • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Other • 25%
Missile attacks • 25%
Border skirmishes • 25%
Terrorist attacks • 25%
Other • 25%
