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Outcome of any potential Hezbollah retaliation by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No retaliation • 25%
Reports from major news agencies or official statements from involved parties
Story
Israeli Military Eliminates Hezbollah Communications Chief Sakafi in Thursday Operation
Oct 4, 2024, 09:36 AM
On Thursday, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) eliminated Mohammad Rashid Sakafi, also known as Mohammad Rashid Skafi, the head of Hezbollah's communication networks, according to a statement released on Friday. The IDF referred to Hezbollah as a terrorist organization in their announcement.
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Successful with significant damage • 25%
Partial success with minor damage • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
No retaliation • 25%
Condemnation from multiple countries • 25%
Support from some countries • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Significant civilian casualties • 25%
Significant military casualties • 25%
Both civilian and military casualties • 25%
Minimal or no casualties • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah moderately weakened • 25%
Hezbollah remains strong • 25%
No significant change • 25%