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What will be the outcome of Greenland-US mineral talks by mid-2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Talks ongoing • 25%
Talks abandoned • 25%
Official announcements from the governments of Greenland or the United States
Story
Trump Seeks Greenland for Security, Island Rejects Annexation but Open to Talks on Mineral Resources
Jan 12, 2025, 08:52 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, citing national security concerns. Trump has not ruled out the use of military or economic force to gain control of the island, which is strategically located between the U.S., Russia, and Europe. Greenland's Prime Minister Múte Egede has firmly rejected the idea of being annexed by the U.S., emphasizing Greenland's desire for independence. Egede has, however, agreed to negotiate with Trump's administration on areas of mutual interest, particularly regarding the island's mineral resources. The increased global attention on Greenland is also driven by the opening of new shipping routes due to melting ice and the territory's rich natural resources. Denmark, which retains responsibility for Greenland's defense, has been in private communication with Trump's team ahead of his inauguration on January 20.
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Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Denmark rejects proposal • 25%
U.S. purchases Greenland • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Greenland reaffirms sovereignty • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
US acquires Greenland • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Denmark retains control without negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Third-party mediation • 25%
Denmark strengthens defense of Greenland • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
U.S.-Denmark agreement on Greenland • 25%
Economic agreements • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Formal acquisition negotiations • 25%
Greenland independence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New cooperation agreement • 25%
Successful acquisition • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No talks initiated • 25%
Talks initiated but no acquisition • 25%
Denmark intervenes • 25%
Greenland rejects negotiations • 25%
No official outcome • 25%
Greenland agrees to negotiations • 25%
Greenland is acquired by the US • 25%
Greenland remains under Danish control • 25%
Denmark agrees to lease parts of Greenland to the US • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
U.S. expands military presence • 25%
Denmark rejects U.S. proposal • 25%
Greenland sold to U.S. • 25%
No significant change • 25%