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What will be the outcome of a potential missile test in Kyiv by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful strike • 25%
Intercepted • 25%
No test conducted • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from Ukrainian and Russian governments, international news agencies
Story
Putin Proposes Technological Duel with U.S. Using Oreshnik Hypersonic Missile Against Target in Kyiv Defenses
Dec 19, 2024, 10:10 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a 'technological duel' with the United States, suggesting that Western experts select a target in Kyiv and concentrate all air and missile defenses there. He stated that Russia would then strike the chosen site with its new Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile, which he claims is un-interceptable by missile defenses. Putin emphasized that Russia is prepared for such an experiment, challenging the effectiveness of Western missile defense systems. This proposal comes amid ongoing tensions between Russia and the West, particularly concerning military capabilities and defense strategies.
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Successful tests with no international response • 25%
Successful tests with international condemnation • 25%
Failed tests • 25%
No tests conducted • 25%
Successfully deployed in defense • 25%
Still in testing phase • 25%
Abandoned or delayed • 25%
No further updates • 25%
Significant military success • 25%
Limited impact • 25%
No impact • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Significant military success • 25%
Limited impact • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations • 25%
Successful tests with no major incidents • 25%
Successful tests with major incidents • 25%
Unsuccessful tests • 25%
Testing halted • 25%
Significant military success • 25%
Limited military success • 25%
No military impact • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Increased military escalation • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased Western support for Ukraine • 25%
De-escalation and negotiations • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
No launch • 25%
Intercepted • 25%
Hit military target • 25%
Hit civilian target • 25%
Increased military success for Ukraine • 25%
Increased military tension with Russia • 25%
No significant change in conflict dynamics • 25%
Other outcome • 25%