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What will be the official outcome of the collision incident between the Philippine and Chinese vessels by end of 2024?
2
South China Sea•Philippine•Chinese•Second Thomas Shoal•China•Xianbin Reef•Nansha Islands•Chinese Coast Guard•Philippines•Sabina Shoal
Resolution / Starting Odds
China is found at fault • 25%
Philippines is found at fault • 25%
Both are found at fault • 25%
No fault determined • 25%
Official statements from the governments of China and the Philippines or verified reports from international news agencies
Story
China Accuses Philippine Vessel of Collision Near Second Thomas Shoal in South China Sea
Aug 18, 2024, 11:45 PM
Tensions in the South China Sea have escalated following an incident involving the Philippine and Chinese coast guards. On Monday, a Philippine coast guard vessel reportedly collided with a Chinese vessel near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal. China accused the Philippine vessel of deliberately causing the collision in a 'dangerous' manner, following repeated warnings. The incident occurred amidst ongoing disputes over the territorial waters surrounding the Xianbin Reef, part of the Nansha Islands, which China claims as its own. The Chinese Coast Guard has accused the Philippines of illegally intruding into these waters without permission, including areas adjacent to Sabina Shoal. The Philippines maintains that its vessel was operating within its own territory.
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Similar markets
Formal diplomatic protest by Philippines • 25%
New maritime restrictions by China • 25%
Third-party diplomatic intervention • 25%
No significant actions taken • 25%
China found at fault • 25%
Philippines found at fault • 25%
Both found at fault • 25%
No fault determined • 25%
Peaceful resolution • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Military standoff • 25%
Other • 25%
Japan apologizes • 25%
China accepts Japan's explanation • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Other • 25%
Philippines removes vessel • 25%
Philippines maintains vessel • 25%
Joint management agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Formal protest lodged with international bodies • 25%
Increased naval patrols in the area • 25%
Engagement in diplomatic talks with China • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Victory for the Philippines • 25%
Victory for China • 25%
Settlement • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
China backs down • 25%
Philippines backs down • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
International arbitration • 25%
Ongoing dispute • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
