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What will be the next significant diplomatic action taken by North Korea in response to defections by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase military presence at the border • 25%
Issue a formal protest to South Korea • 25%
Make a public statement condemning defections • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from North Korean government or major news outlets
Story
North Korean Soldier Defects to South Korea, Second Incident in Eastern Part
Aug 20, 2024, 01:11 AM
A North Korean soldier has defected to South Korea, crossing the heavily militarized border in the eastern part of the Korean peninsula. The defection occurred early on Tuesday, as confirmed by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). This incident marks the second suspected defection this month. There is speculation that the recent resumption of loudspeaker broadcasts along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) may have influenced frontline North Korean soldiers to defect.
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Increased military presence at the border • 25%
Diplomatic protest to South Korea • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Military action • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Diplomatic Action • 25%
No Response • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Diplomatic dialogue • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Engagement with South Korea • 25%
Engagement with the U.S. • 25%
Engagement with China • 25%
No major engagement • 25%
Another missile test • 25%
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Military exercise • 25%
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China • 33%
Russia • 33%
United States • 34%
United States • 25%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
Another missile test • 25%
Nuclear test • 25%
Diplomatic talks • 25%
Military parade • 25%
Military Exercise • 25%
Missile Test • 25%
Diplomatic Engagement • 25%
Other • 25%