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What will be the next significant diplomatic action by North Korea against South Korea by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Military action • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Official announcements from the North Korean government or reports from major international news agencies such as Reuters, AP, or BBC
Story
North Korea Issues Ultimatum to South Korea Amid Drone Incidents, Reports KCNA and AP
Oct 11, 2024, 11:51 AM
North Korea has issued an ultimatum demanding that South Korea immediately cease its provocations, according to KCNA. The ultimatum follows accusations from North Korea that South Korea has sent drones over Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea, three times since last week. North Korea has also accused South Korea of scattering leaflets in Pyongyang using drones, reports AP. In response, North Korea has placed its offensive weapons on full alert along the border. The situation has escalated tensions between the two countries, with North Korea threatening to respond with force if such actions continue.
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Military escalation • 25%
Diplomatic dialogue • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Military action • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Economic action • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increase military presence at the border • 25%
Issue a formal protest to South Korea • 25%
Make a public statement condemning defections • 25%
Other • 25%
Ballistic missile test • 25%
Nuclear test • 25%
Conventional military exercise • 25%
None of the above • 25%
Missile Test • 25%
Artillery Drill • 25%
Naval Exercise • 25%
Other • 25%
Further hostility declaration • 25%
Call for peace talks • 25%
Military readiness increase • 25%
No major announcement • 25%
Another missile test • 25%
Diplomatic statement • 25%
Military exercise • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increase sanctions • 33%
Seek dialogue • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Increased Military Presence • 25%
Diplomatic Talks Initiated • 25%
Economic Measures Implemented • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Military Action • 25%
Diplomatic Engagement • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
No Further Action • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Formal peace talks • 25%