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What will be the next major U.S. diplomatic action in the Middle East peace process by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
New peace talks initiated • 25%
Military aid to Israel • 25%
Humanitarian aid to Gaza • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. Department of State or international news agencies
Story
Blinken Credits Erdoğan for Hamas's Return to Cease-Fire Negotiations Following January 15 Agreement
Jan 16, 2025, 07:01 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan played a crucial role in facilitating Hamas's return to cease-fire negotiations. In a final news conference, Blinken stated that the U.S. had requested Erdoğan's assistance to leverage his influence in bringing Hamas back to the negotiation table. Following this request, Hamas resumed discussions aimed at finalizing a Gaza cease-fire agreement. Blinken highlighted that the collaboration with Erdoğan was part of broader efforts involving other actors to achieve a resolution. The cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas was reached on January 15, 2025.
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Reduces involvement • 25%
Continues current strategy • 25%
Introduces new initiatives • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Humanitarian aid to Gaza • 25%
Military support to Israel • 25%
Sanctions on Gaza entities • 25%
New peace talks initiated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Proposed by EU • 25%
No major initiative proposed • 25%
Proposed by UN • 25%
Proposed by US • 25%
Humanitarian aid agreement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
New peace talks • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Other diplomatic goals • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Hostage release • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release • 25%
Direct negotiator • 25%
Mediator • 25%
No role • 25%
Observer • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other focus • 25%
Focus on Israel-Palestine conflict • 25%
Focus on Iran • 25%
Focus on Syria • 25%