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What will be the next major conflict or cease-fire violation involving Hamas by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Within Gaza • 25%
Involving Israel • 25%
Internal Palestinian conflict • 25%
No major conflict • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from involved parties
Story
Blinken Credits Erdoğan for Hamas's Return to Cease-Fire Negotiations Following January 15 Agreement
Jan 16, 2025, 07:01 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan played a crucial role in facilitating Hamas's return to cease-fire negotiations. In a final news conference, Blinken stated that the U.S. had requested Erdoğan's assistance to leverage his influence in bringing Hamas back to the negotiation table. Following this request, Hamas resumed discussions aimed at finalizing a Gaza cease-fire agreement. Blinken highlighted that the collaboration with Erdoğan was part of broader efforts involving other actors to achieve a resolution. The cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas was reached on January 15, 2025.
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Escalation • 25%
Lasting peace agreement • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Both simultaneously • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Israel • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ceasefire • 25%
Escalated conflict • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%