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What will be the next major scientific discovery related to COVID-19 origins by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Animal origin confirmed • 25%
Lab origin confirmed • 25%
New hypothesis emerges • 25%
No new discovery • 25%
publications in major scientific journals or WHO announcements
Story
On Pandemic's 5th Anniversary, WHO Calls China's Cooperation a "Moral Imperative" in COVID-19 Origins
Dec 30, 2024, 06:03 PM
Five years after the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, the World Health Organization (WHO) has renewed its call for China to share data and cooperate in understanding the virus's origins, deeming it a "moral and scientific imperative." On December 30, 2019, Wuhan doctors Dr. Li Wenliang and Dr. Ai Fen raised alarms about a cluster of pneumonia cases linked to a SARS-related coronavirus. Dr. Li, who was later reprimanded by authorities and tragically died 39 days after his warning, had alerted colleagues via WeChat. Since the first cases were reported to the WHO on December 31, 2019, COVID-19 has resulted in over 777 million infections and 7 million deaths worldwide. The WHO continues to urge China for transparency to comprehend how the pandemic began.
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End current investigations • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Launch new investigation • 25%
Issue new guidelines • 25%
Supports natural origin • 25%
No such study published • 25%
Supports lab origin • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Natural spillover • 25%
Other • 25%
Unknown origin • 25%
Laboratory-related incident • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
New evidence supports lab origin • 25%
New evidence supports natural origin • 25%
Further research required • 25%
No new significant findings • 25%
Other theory • 25%
Zoonotic transmission confirmed • 25%
Combination of both • 25%
Lab leak confirmed • 25%
Supports lab origin • 25%
Supports natural origin • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
No new findings • 25%
No definitive conclusion • 25%
Confirms lab leak • 25%
Calls for more research • 25%
Refutes lab leak • 25%
Environmental samples • 25%
Other • 25%
Animal market data • 25%
Laboratory data • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
No official conclusion • 25%
Confirmed natural origin • 25%
Confirmed lab leak • 25%
Inconclusive • 34%
Natural origin • 33%
Lab origin • 33%