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What will be the intelligence community's consensus on COVID-19 origin by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Natural origin • 33%
Lab origin • 33%
Inconclusive • 34%
Official statement or report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Story
Investigations Reveal COVID-19 Virus Mapped by Chinese Researchers Before Public Disclosure; FBI and Department of Energy Assess Wuhan Lab Origin
Dec 26, 2024, 10:23 AM
Recent investigations have revealed that Chinese researchers mapped the virus responsible for COVID-19 at least two weeks prior to Beijing's public disclosure of the virus details. This information, reported by congressional investigators, aligns with ongoing discussions about the origins of COVID-19, which have historically been contentious. The Wall Street Journal has highlighted that the lab leak hypothesis, previously dismissed as a conspiracy theory, has gained traction among intelligence experts, with the FBI and the Department of Energy suggesting that the virus may have originated from a laboratory in Wuhan. However, disagreements within the intelligence community regarding this assessment remain significant and not fully disclosed to the public. The discourse surrounding the origins of COVID-19 continues to evolve, reflecting deeper divisions among scientists and intelligence officials regarding the implications of these findings.
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Calls for more research • 25%
Refutes lab leak • 25%
No definitive conclusion • 25%
Confirms lab leak • 25%
Other • 25%
Laboratory-related incident • 25%
Natural spillover • 25%
Unknown origin • 25%
No official conclusion • 25%
Confirmed lab leak • 25%
Confirmed natural origin • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Lab Leak Theory • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Other • 25%
Natural Zoonotic Origin • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
No official stance • 25%
Lab leak confirmed • 25%
Natural origin confirmed • 25%
No new significant findings • 25%
Further research required • 25%
New evidence supports natural origin • 25%
New evidence supports lab origin • 25%
Environmental samples • 25%
Other • 25%
Animal market data • 25%
Laboratory data • 25%
Zoonotic transmission confirmed • 25%
Other theory • 25%
Combination of both • 25%
Lab leak confirmed • 25%
Policy changes recommended • 25%
Further investigation recommended • 25%
Other • 25%
No further action taken • 25%
Decrease in belief of lab-leak theory • 25%
Increase in belief of lab-leak theory • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other shifts in opinion • 25%