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What will be the military dynamics between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Reduced tensions • 25%
Continued status quo • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Reports from international defense analysts, official government statements, and credible news sources
Story
Russia's Lavrov Warns West with 'Oreshnik' Test, Seeks Normal US Relations
Dec 5, 2024, 11:30 PM
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in an interview with Tucker Carlson, stated that Russia does not seek war with the United States and desires normal relations. Lavrov emphasized that Russia is prepared to use any means to defend its interests, highlighting the recent test of the 'Oreshnik' hypersonic missile as a clear signal to the West. He warned that discussions of a limited nuclear strike are an invitation to catastrophe that Russia wants to avoid. Lavrov noted that Russia and the US currently maintain dialogue mainly through prisoner exchange channels. He reiterated that Russia does not intend to destroy the Ukrainian people, whom he referred to as 'brothers and sisters,' and asserted that it is mistaken for anyone in the West to believe that Russia has no 'red lines.' He stated that Russia's conditions are 'No NATO, no military bases, no military exercises with foreign troops on Ukrainian soil.'
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Significant Territorial Gain • 25%
Withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Territorial losses • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
New missile test • 25%
Increased troop movements • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No major developments • 25%
De-escalation and peace talks • 25%
Continued military stalemate • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Significant decrease • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in activity • 25%
Fluctuating levels • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Other • 25%
Military victory for Russia • 25%
Military victory for Ukraine • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Russia escalates military actions • 25%
Russia maintains current level of engagement • 25%
Russia deescalates military actions • 25%
Peace negotiations commence • 25%
Russia withdraws • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Ukraine regains territory • 25%
Russia gains territory • 25%
Launch a new offensive • 25%
Defensive operations • 25%
Negotiations for peace • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ukraine Victory • 25%
Russia Victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%