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What will be the final outcome of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations by December 31, 2024?
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Hamas•Qatari•Egyptian•Gaza•Israeli•Haniyeh•Benjamin Netanyahu•Joe Biden•Biden•Netanyahu•Palestinian•Barnea•Qatar
Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal ceasefire agreement • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government, Hamas, or recognized international mediators
Story
Biden, Netanyahu Discuss Hamas' New Ceasefire Proposal Amid Gaza Negotiations
Jul 4, 2024, 05:17 PM
Hamas has exchanged ideas with mediators, including Qatari and Egyptian officials, to end the war in Gaza. Senior Israeli officials indicate that Hamas' latest response opens the door to more detailed negotiations, potentially leading to a hostage-ceasefire deal. Hamas leader Haniyeh has conducted calls with mediators. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is dispatching negotiators to resume Gaza ceasefire talks, and U.S. President Joe Biden has welcomed this decision. Biden and Netanyahu discussed the new Hamas positions and walked through a draft Israel-Hamas agreement. A senior administration official noted a breakthrough on a critical impasse in the talks, with the U.S. delegation set to participate. Hamas has made significant adjustments in their position, including a more gradual Israeli troop withdrawal and a gradual exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, seeking written guarantees for a full ceasefire. Additionally, Israeli spy chief Barnea is traveling to Qatar to continue Gaza ceasefire and hostage release talks.
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Permanent ceasefire established • 25%
Temporary ceasefire established • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations collapse • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached with Barghouti's release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached without Barghouti's release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
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Ceasefire Agreement Reached • 25%
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Successful ceasefire • 25%
Partial ceasefire • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
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Hostage release without ceasefire • 25%
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Other • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement not reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Talks postponed • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and implemented • 25%
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Talks ongoing without resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreed without new conditions • 25%
Ceasefire agreed with new conditions • 25%
No ceasefire agreed • 25%
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Cease-fire agreement with hostage release • 25%
Cease-fire agreement without hostage release • 25%
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Hostages released, no ceasefire • 25%
Hostages released, ceasefire agreed • 25%
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Negotiations abandoned • 25%
Complete adherence by both sides • 25%
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Complete breakdown of the ceasefire • 25%
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Complete ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
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Talks collapsed • 25%