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What will be the level of Western allies' involvement in Ukraine's negotiations by May 2025?
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Donald Trump•White House•Ukraine•Keith Kellogg•Trump•Kyiv•Moscow•Ukrainian•Volodymyr Zelensky•Western•Zelensky•NATO•Russia
Resolution / Starting Odds
High involvement • 25%
Moderate involvement • 25%
Low involvement • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Statements from Western governments or international news reports
Story
Trump Sets 100-Day Timeline to End Ukraine War, Aims for Sustainable Peace Amid Kyiv Concerns
Jan 12, 2025, 01:00 PM
Donald Trump, set to re-enter the White House, has revised his timeline for ending the war in Ukraine from a previously stated 24 hours to within 100 days of his inauguration. This adjustment was announced by Keith Kellogg, Trump's pick for special peace envoy, who aims to broker a 'solid and sustainable' agreement by May. The change in strategy has raised concerns in Kyiv about the potential for a peace deal that might favor Moscow. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed readiness for a 'new chapter' with Trump's administration, emphasizing the need for continued cooperation and support from Western allies. Zelensky is advocating for a 'peace-through-strength' approach, seeking NATO protections and concrete security guarantees as part of any settlement. Trump's comments on understanding Russia's concerns about NATO have added complexity to the situation, as he has suggested that NATO's involvement with Ukraine was a significant issue for Russia.
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No involvement • 25%
High involvement • 25%
Moderate involvement • 25%
Low involvement • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Military deployment • 25%
Diplomatic support only • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with Russia • 25%
Increased military involvement • 25%
Continued current support levels • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
Russia, US, EU, and other countries • 25%
Russia, US, and EU countries • 25%
Other configurations • 25%
Only Russia and the US • 25%
Moderate Support • 33%
Low Support • 34%
High Support • 33%
Increased slightly • 25%
Increased significantly • 25%
Decreased • 25%
Remained the same • 25%
Increased military aid • 25%
Diplomatic support only • 25%
No change in involvement • 25%
Direct military support • 25%
Maintained current level • 25%
Increased support • 25%
Reduced support • 25%
No support • 25%
Negotiations result in partial agreements • 25%
No negotiations occur • 25%
Negotiations result in comprehensive agreements • 25%
Negotiations occur with no agreements • 25%
Decreased conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Increased conflict • 25%
No significant support • 25%
Majority support with consensus • 25%
Majority support but no consensus • 25%
Minority support • 25%
Ukraine receives no further NATO support • 25%
Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ukraine remains outside NATO with increased cooperation • 25%