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What will be the leadership status of the Syrian 4th Division by Dec 31, 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
New Commander Appointed • 25%
Maher al-Assad Remains Commander • 25%
Interim Commander Appointed • 25%
No Change Announced • 25%
Official announcements from the Syrian government or credible news agencies like BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera
Story
Israeli Airstrike Hits Maher al-Assad's Villa; Reports Suggest Syrian President's Brother Eliminated
Sep 29, 2024, 08:36 PM
Israeli airstrikes targeted the villa of Maher al-Assad in Yaafour near Damascus. Maher al-Assad, brother of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and commander of the pro-Iranian 4th Division of the Syrian Army, was reportedly meeting with Iranian officials at the time of the attack. Contact has been lost with Maher al-Assad following the strike, leading to speculation about his fate, with some reports suggesting he may have been eliminated. Maher al-Assad is known for his extreme brutality during Syria's civil war.
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Marhaf Abu Qasra remains acting • 25%
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Current leadership remains • 25%
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Moderate level of control and coordination • 25%
Low level of control and coordination • 25%
No improvement in control and coordination • 25%
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Interim government formed • 25%
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Unified under a single government • 25%
Divided with multiple factions • 25%
In conflict • 25%
Other • 25%