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What will be the impact on regional security following Nasrallah's assassination by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased conflict in Lebanon • 25%
Increased conflict in Gaza • 25%
Increased conflict in both regions • 25%
No significant increase in conflict • 25%
Verified news reports from major news agencies (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera)
Story
Hamas Condemns Israeli Strike, Mourns Nasrallah's Death, and Vows to Strengthen Resistance
Sep 28, 2024, 11:58 AM
On September 27, Hamas condemned the Israeli airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs, which targeted the headquarters of Hezbollah. Following the strike, Hamas issued a statement on September 28 mourning the martyrdom of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in the attack. Hamas declared that Nasrallah's assassination would only strengthen the resistance against Israel and have dangerous repercussions on regional security. The group expressed condolences to Hezbollah and reaffirmed its support for the Lebanese ally. Hamas also labeled the killing of Nasrallah as an act of terrorism and held Israeli authorities responsible for the attack.
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Increase in influence • 25%
Decrease in influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Fragmentation within Hezbollah • 25%
Sanctions on Israel • 25%
Sanctions on Lebanon • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
Israel conducts a military strike on Iran • 25%
Both Iran and Israel engage in military actions • 25%
No military actions between Iran and Israel • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Sanctions on Israel • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased military operations • 25%
Decreased military operations • 25%
No change in military operations • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased sanctions on Israel • 25%
Increased sanctions on Hezbollah • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Sanctions on Israel • 25%
Condemnation without sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Strengthened alliance with Iran • 25%
Weakened alliance with Iran • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
U.S. imposes sanctions on Israel • 25%
UN issues a resolution condemning the assassination • 25%
Major protests in multiple countries • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Increased violence • 25%
Decreased violence • 25%
No change • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Increase in attacks against Israel • 25%
Increase in attacks against US interests • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation only • 25%
No significant response • 25%
UN sanctions on Israel • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 25%
Other • 25%