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What will be the impact of Nasrallah's death on Hezbollah's alliances by the end of 2024?
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Iraqi Shiite•Iraqi•Hezbollah•Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah•Nasrallah•Israeli•Beirut•Iran•Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthened alliance with Iran • 25%
Weakened alliance with Iran • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from Hezbollah or reputable news sources
Story
Iraq and Iran Declare Days of Mourning for Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah
Sep 28, 2024, 02:03 PM
Influential Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and the Iraqi government have declared three days of mourning following the martyrdom of Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has directed the national mourning period in memory of Nasrallah and his companions, who were killed in an Israeli air strike on Beirut. Additionally, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has declared five days of mourning in Iran for Nasrallah, reflecting the significance of his death within the region.
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Increased violence • 25%
Decreased violence • 25%
No change • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Increased violence and clashes • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
Diplomatic efforts for peace • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Sanctions on Israel • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased conflict in Lebanon • 25%
Increased conflict in Gaza • 25%
Increased conflict in both regions • 25%
No significant increase in conflict • 25%
Condemnation of Israel's actions • 25%
Support for Israel's actions • 25%
Calls for de-escalation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased military operations • 25%
Decreased military operations • 25%
No change in military operations • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase in attacks against Israel • 25%
Increase in attacks against US interests • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation only • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased attacks on Israel • 25%
Increased attacks on US interests • 25%
Diplomatic actions or statements • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation of Israel • 25%
Support for Israel • 25%
Calls for restraint • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
UN Condemnation • 25%
EU Sanctions • 25%
US Military Action • 25%
No Major Reaction • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
New leader from within Hezbollah • 25%
New leader backed by Iran • 25%
Leadership structure changes • 25%
UN condemnation of Israel • 25%
Increased sanctions on Hezbollah • 25%
Calls for peace talks • 25%
No significant response • 25%