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What will be the impact on ISIS operations in Somalia post-airstrike by December 31, 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant Decrease • 33%
No Change • 33%
Increase • 33%
U.S. military or intelligence reports, news agencies
Story
U.S. Military Targets ISIS Leader Abdul Qadir Mumin in Late-May Somalia Airstrike
Jun 15, 2024, 04:05 PM
The U.S. military conducted a late-May airstrike in Somalia targeting the global leader of ISIS, Abdul Qadir Mumin. The strike aimed at Mumin, who was formerly U.K. based and later became the leader of the ISIS affiliate in Somalia, has not been confirmed as successful in terms of eliminating him. Three U.S. officials have stated that while the operation targeted Mumin, his death has not yet been verified.
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Increase surveillance • 25%
Introduce new legislation • 25%
Enhance rehabilitation programs • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 33%
Increase in military presence • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Success in defending Kharkiv • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Escalation of conflict • 34%
Diplomatic efforts • 33%
Increased sanctions • 33%
Military retaliation • 34%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Retaliatory military action • 25%
Appeal to the UN • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Minor damage • 33%
Moderate damage • 33%
Severe damage • 33%
Immediate ceasefire • 33%
Gradual reduction in fighting • 33%
No noticeable impact • 33%
Continued offensive • 33%
Ceasefire • 33%
Significant reduction in operations • 33%
Significant Damage • 25%
Moderate Damage • 25%
Minor Damage • 25%
No Further Damage • 25%
