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Market
Will there be a follow-up airstrike targeting Abdul Qadir Mumin by October 31, 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official U.S. military or government announcement
Story
U.S. Military Targets ISIS Leader Abdul Qadir Mumin in Late-May Somalia Airstrike
Jun 15, 2024, 04:05 PM
The U.S. military conducted a late-May airstrike in Somalia targeting the global leader of ISIS, Abdul Qadir Mumin. The strike aimed at Mumin, who was formerly U.K. based and later became the leader of the ISIS affiliate in Somalia, has not been confirmed as successful in terms of eliminating him. Three U.S. officials have stated that while the operation targeted Mumin, his death has not yet been verified.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Diplomatic efforts • 33%
Increased sanctions • 33%
Military retaliation • 34%
