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What will be the outcome of U.S.-authorized strikes inside Russia by October 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Success in defending Kharkiv • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Escalation of conflict • 34%
Verified reports from major news outlets such as CNN, Reuters, and official statements from the U.S. and Ukrainian governments
Story
Biden Authorizes Limited Use of U.S. Weapons by Ukraine for Strikes Inside Russia Near Kharkiv
May 31, 2024, 12:40 PM
In a significant policy shift, President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapons to strike military targets inside Russia. This decision, confirmed by multiple U.S. officials, allows Ukraine to defend the northeastern city of Kharkiv against Russian attacks. The authorization is limited to the Kharkiv region and includes counter-battery fire and the interception of Russian missiles. However, the use of longer-range ATACMS missiles and strikes on parked planes remain prohibited. The move comes amid increasing pressure from international partners and national security aides, and it marks a reversal of Biden's previous ban on such actions. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed the policy change, emphasizing that it reflects a deliberate determination to support Ukraine's defense efforts. The authorization also includes the Belgorod and Sumy regions, and weapons such as GMLRS and Patriot systems are permitted, according to a CNN report.
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Successful with significant damage to Russian military targets • 33%
Limited success with minor damage • 33%
Unsuccessful or no strikes carried out • 33%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Significant damage • 33%
Minor damage • 33%
No damage • 34%
Russian forces capture Kharkiv • 33%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 33%
Ukrainian forces reclaim all lost territories • 33%
Significant deterioration • 33%
Minor deterioration • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Ukraine gains significant ground • 33%
Stalemate/no significant change • 34%
Russia gains significant ground • 33%
Significant territorial gains • 33%
Minor territorial gains • 33%
No territorial gains • 34%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased Sanctions on Russia • 34%
Increased Military Aid to Ukraine • 33%
Diplomatic Talks • 33%
Condemnation by NATO • 25%
Support from NATO • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No official reaction • 25%