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What will be the identified toxic substance in Yaroslavl attack plot by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Identified as a nerve agent • 25%
Identified as a chemical irritant • 25%
Identified as a biological toxin • 25%
Unidentified • 25%
Official FSB reports or scientific analysis results
Story
FSB Thwarts Ukrainian-Planned Terrorist Attack Using Toxic Substances in Yaroslavl
Jan 14, 2025, 06:08 AM
Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) has thwarted a terrorist attack planned by Ukrainian special services, targeting employees of a defense company in the Yaroslavl region. The attack involved the intended use of toxic substances to be released into the employees' cars. A Russian citizen, who was allegedly directed by Kiev, was detained in connection with the plot. The FSB reported that the suspect had planned to pour chemicals into the air vents of the vehicles, which would have caused respiratory burns potentially leading to fatal outcomes.
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Similar markets
Internal Russian entity • 25%
Non-state actor • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Foreign government • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Nerve Agent • 25%
Other/Unknown • 25%
Chemical Poison • 25%
Radioactive Substance • 25%
No responsible party identified • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Syrian opposition • 25%
Russian government • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other motives • 25%
Embezzlement exposure • 25%
Personal vendetta • 25%
Espionage activities • 25%
Accidental explosion • 25%
Terrorist attack • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Undetermined • 25%
Other • 25%
Explosive device • 25%
Poisoning • 25%
Shooting • 25%
Sanctions by Western countries • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
No official response • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%