Loading...
Market
What will be the future actions of the TPNPB-OPM group by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Cease Hostilities • 25%
Continue Hostilities • 25%
Enter Peace Talks • 25%
Splinter into Smaller Groups • 25%
Official statements from the Indonesian government or reputable news agencies
Story
Papua Rebels Agree to Release New Zealand Pilot Held for Over a Year
Aug 5, 2024, 03:52 AM
A separatist group in Indonesia's Papua region has agreed to release New Zealand pilot Phillip Mehrtens, who has been held captive for over a year. The group, known as the TPNPB-OPM, communicated their decision through an audio message issued by a spokesperson. This development marks a significant turn in the prolonged captivity of Mehrtens, who was kidnapped by the Papua rebels over a year ago.
View original story
Similar markets
Phillip Mehrtens released unconditionally • 25%
Phillip Mehrtens released with conditions • 25%
Negotiations fail, Mehrtens remains captive • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased military presence • 25%
Negotiations with Kuki groups • 25%
Curfew or lockdown • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Leadership change • 25%
Strategic shift • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
0 • 25%
1-2 • 25%
3-5 • 25%
More than 5 • 25%
Increased activity • 25%
Decreased activity • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ceased activity • 25%
Other • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Failure • 25%
All hostages released • 33%
Partial release • 33%
No release • 34%