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What will be the outcome of the negotiations between TPNPB-OPM and Indonesian government regarding Phillip Mehrtens by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Phillip Mehrtens released unconditionally • 25%
Phillip Mehrtens released with conditions • 25%
Negotiations fail, Mehrtens remains captive • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Indonesian government, TPNPB-OPM, or credible news sources
Story
Papua Separatists Agree to Release New Zealand Pilot Phillip Mehrtens After Over a Year
Aug 3, 2024, 10:55 AM
A separatist group in Indonesia's easternmost region of Papua, known as TPNPB-OPM, has agreed to release New Zealand pilot Phillip Mehrtens. Mehrtens has been held captive for over a year since being kidnapped by the group. The announcement was made via an audio message issued by a spokesperson for the Papua rebels, who are ready to free the pilot.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
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Released Unharmed by September 30, 2024 • 25%
Released Unharmed by December 31, 2024 • 25%
Released with Injuries by December 31, 2024 • 25%
Not Released by December 31, 2024 • 25%
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Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Yes • 50%
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Cease Hostilities • 25%
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Enter Peace Talks • 25%
Splinter into Smaller Groups • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
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Hostages killed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostage negotiations fail • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Prisoner exchange • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
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Other • 25%