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What will be the status of West Papua separatist activity by mid-2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased activity • 25%
Decreased activity • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ceased activity • 25%
Reports from Indonesian police and major news outlets
Story
NZ Pilot Phillip Mehrtens Freed by West Papua Separatists After Over a Year in Captivity
Sep 21, 2024, 03:55 AM
New Zealand pilot Phillip Mehrtens, who was taken hostage by West Papua separatists in Indonesia's Papua region in February last year, has been released. Mehrtens, a pilot for Susi Air, had been held captive for more than a year and a half. Indonesian police confirmed his release.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
United States • 25%
Australia • 25%
China • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Australia • 25%
New Zealand • 25%
United States • 25%
Other • 25%
Cease Hostilities • 25%
Continue Hostilities • 25%
Enter Peace Talks • 25%
Splinter into Smaller Groups • 25%
M23 controls more territory • 25%
M23 controls less territory • 25%
Territory control remains the same • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Resistance movements strengthened • 25%
Resistance movements weakened • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Resistance movements disbanded • 25%