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What will be Rassemblement National's next major political move regarding the budget issue by January 31, 2025?
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Michel Barnier•Constitution•Social Security•Rassemblement National•RN•Marine Le Pen•La France Insoumise•LFI•Barnier•Jordan Bardella•National Assembly
Resolution / Starting Odds
File another motion of censure • 25%
Organize protests • 25%
Call for early elections • 25%
No major action • 25%
Official announcements from Rassemblement National or major news outlets
Story
Barnier Invokes First 49.3 to Pass Budget; Faces No-Confidence Vote Wednesday
Dec 2, 2024, 02:45 PM
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier has, for the first time since his nomination, invoked Article 49.3 of the Constitution to force through the Social Security budget without a parliamentary vote, amid strong opposition. The move, announced on December 2, 2024, has prompted opposition parties including the Rassemblement National (RN) led by Marine Le Pen and La France Insoumise (LFI) to file motions of censure against the government. The no-confidence vote, expected on Wednesday, could potentially topple Barnier's administration. The RN has confirmed it will support the motion, with Jordan Bardella stating the party will vote for censure 'sauf miracle de dernière minute' (barring a last-minute miracle). In a message to his ministers, Barnier acknowledged, 'We are in a serious moment.' The government's reliance on Article 49.3 highlights the challenges it faces in securing majority support for its policies in the National Assembly.
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Similar markets
Budget not passed • 25%
Partial concessions to RN • 25%
Full agreement with RN demands • 25%
No concessions to RN • 25%
Motion of censure filed • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Government makes concessions • 25%
Article 49.3 invoked • 25%
No significant alliance changes • 25%
Existing alliances strengthened • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
Alliances weakened • 25%
No significant action from any party • 25%
Socialist Party calls for further protests • 25%
La France Insoumise initiates further legal action • 25%
Ecologist group proposes alternative budget • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other • 25%
Lose seats • 25%
Maintain seats • 25%
Increase seats • 25%
Propose new legislation • 25%
Call for early elections • 25%
Form coalition with other parties • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Not proposed • 25%
Approved without major changes • 25%
Approved with major changes • 25%
Rejected • 25%