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VisitOutcome of National Rally's ultimatum on 2025 budget by Dec 5, 2024?
Government makes concessions • 25%
Article 49.3 invoked • 25%
Motion of censure filed • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Official announcements from the French government or credible news outlets
Barnier's Government Faces No-Confidence Vote as Le Pen's Ultimatum Over Budget Expires
Dec 2, 2024, 04:49 AM
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government faces a potential motion of censure as the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, threatens to bring down the government over disagreements on the 2025 budget and the Social Security financing bill. Le Pen has set an ultimatum expiring on Monday for Barnier to make further concessions, particularly on the Social Security budget, and has warned of a motion of censure if her demands are not met. She stated that her party would vote for censure 'unless there is a miracle'. The government is considering invoking Article 49.3 of the Constitution as early as today to pass the budget without a vote, a move that could trigger the no-confidence vote. Marion Maréchal, a National Rally lawmaker, affirmed their readiness to vote for censure if the government does not make any changes. National Rally President Jordan Bardella has toughened the party's stance, increasing the likelihood that the government will be toppled. The situation has escalated over the weekend, with the government under mounting pressure to avoid censure.
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Align with left-wing parties • 25%
Align with centrist parties • 25%
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Form a new coalition • 25%
File another motion of censure • 25%
Organize protests • 25%
Call for early elections • 25%
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New leader elected • 25%
Marine Le Pen remains leader • 25%
Party dissolves • 25%
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Budget passes without Article 49.3 • 25%
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Budget fails, motion of censure passes • 25%
Budget fails, no motion of censure • 25%
Socialist Party calls for further protests • 25%
La France Insoumise initiates further legal action • 25%
Ecologist group proposes alternative budget • 25%
No significant action from any party • 25%
Yes • 50%
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Marion Maréchal • 25%
Michel Barnier • 25%
Marine Le Pen • 25%
Jordan Bardella • 25%