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What will be Muqtada al-Sadr's influence on Iraqi foreign policy regarding Syria by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
No change • 25%
Marginalized • 25%
Analysis and reports from political analysts and international news agencies
Story
Muqtada al-Sadr Urges Iraqi Forces to Avoid Syrian Conflict, Emphasizes National Sovereignty and Punishment for Interference
Dec 5, 2024, 04:36 PM
Muqtada al-Sadr, a prominent Iraqi Shiite cleric, has reiterated his opposition to any Iraqi intervention in the ongoing conflict in Syria. He expressed hope that the 'defiant free Syrian people' could avoid the impacts of terrorism and extremism, while warning against schemes by the United States, Israel, and Britain. Al-Sadr urged the Iraqi government to prevent any Iraqi forces or militias from engaging in the Syrian conflict, emphasizing that it is up to the Syrian people to determine their own fate. He stated that any armed groups attempting to cross into Syria should be 'punished and prevented' by the Iraqi authorities. Al-Sadr's stance reflects his nationalist views and consistent criticism of Iranian influence in Iraq, particularly regarding Iranian-linked proxy forces aiding the Assad regime in Syria.
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Maintained status quo • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Existing bases maintained • 25%
Reduction in foreign bases • 25%
Complete expulsion of foreign bases • 25%
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Troops remain • 25%
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Troops increased • 25%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
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Complete Iranian withdrawal • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Decisive victory for Syrian government • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Rebel forces gain ground • 25%
Rebels gain more territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Syrian army regains significant territory • 25%
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No significant impact • 25%
Increased opposition to Assad regime • 25%
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Other political shifts • 25%
Fatah Alliance • 25%
Other • 25%
State of Law Coalition • 25%
Sadrist Movement • 25%
Increased military aggression • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Strategic shift towards peace • 25%
US maintains limited presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
US fully withdraws from Syria • 25%
US increases involvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Decreased Iranian influence • 25%