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What level of legal challenges will Trump face in protecting TikTok by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No legal challenges • 25%
Minor legal challenges • 25%
Major legal challenges • 25%
Overcome all challenges • 25%
Court cases or official government statements
Story
On Monday, TikTok and ByteDance Seek Emergency Halt of US Ban Until Trump Takes Office
Dec 10, 2024, 10:00 AM
On Monday, TikTok and its parent company ByteDance filed an emergency motion with a federal appeals court to block a US ban on the popular social media app. The companies are seeking an injunction to prevent enforcement of a law that would force TikTok to divest or face a ban in the United States. They request that the ban be halted until the Supreme Court can review the legislation or until President-elect Donald Trump takes office. If the law is not overturned by the mid-January deadline, TikTok and ByteDance have indicated that the app will shut down in the US. President-elect Trump has vowed to protect TikTok from the ban, but analysts warn he may face legal challenges in doing so.
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Challenges upheld • 33%
Challenges rejected • 33%
Case unresolved • 33%
Divestment blocked • 25%
Divestment proceeds • 25%
Divestment postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok wins the legal challenge • 25%
TikTok loses the legal challenge • 25%
Case is settled out of court • 25%
Case is postponed beyond January 19, 2024 • 25%
TikTok wins • 25%
TikTok loses and divests • 25%
TikTok loses and is banned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Ban delayed, temporary reprieve • 25%
Ban overturned, TikTok operations continue • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Law Upheld • 33%
Law Struck Down • 33%
Compromise Reached • 33%
TikTok Banned • 33%
TikTok Sold • 33%
TikTok Remains Operational • 33%
TikTok Wins • 33%
Government Wins • 33%
Settlement Reached • 33%