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What changes will occur in Ukraine's military status by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Reduction in military capabilities • 25%
Maintenance of current military status • 25%
Expansion of military capabilities • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Official statements from the Ukrainian government, verified news reports
Story
Putin to Demand Ukraine's Neutrality, Limited Army, and NATO Rejection in Talks with Trump, per Bloomberg
Jan 15, 2025, 05:15 PM
In upcoming negotiations with incoming U.S. President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to demand that Ukraine never join NATO and significantly reduce its military capabilities. Reports indicate that Putin seeks to establish Ukraine as a neutral state, which would involve curtailing military ties with the NATO alliance. Additional demands from Russia include restrictions on NATO's supply of weapons to Ukraine, specifically that such arms should not be used against Russia or for reclaiming territories. These conditions reflect Russia's assertive stance in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with Putin reportedly believing he holds an advantage in the situation.
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Similar markets
Significantly weakened • 25%
Partially operational • 25%
Fully operational • 25%
Collapsed • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Deteriorated • 25%
Improved • 25%
Other • 25%
New leadership appointed • 25%
Policy reversal • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Increased military support from allies • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
No improvement • 25%
Moderate improvement • 25%
Significant improvement • 25%
Moderate impact on Air Force operations • 25%
Reversal of decision • 25%
Significant negative impact on Air Force operations • 25%
Successful reinforcement with minimal impact • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Decreased military activity • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New frontlines established • 25%
Reduced tensions • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Continued status quo • 25%
