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What changes will occur in Microsoft's AI research team structure by mid-2025 post-Bubeck?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New leadership structure • 25%
Increased collaboration with OpenAI • 25%
Increased investment in AI research • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Microsoft's organizational announcements or credible news reports
Story
Prominent Microsoft AI VP Sebastien Bubeck to Join OpenAI
Oct 14, 2024, 07:14 PM
Sebastien Bubeck, one of Microsoft's top and most prominent artificial intelligence researchers and AI vice president, is leaving the company to join OpenAI, according to multiple sources. Bubeck's departure marks a significant shift as he transitions to a company where Microsoft is both the largest investor and a competitor. The move has been confirmed by Microsoft and reported by The Information, with the scoop attributed to Aaron Holmes.
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Remains non-profit • 25%
Fully transitions to for-profit • 25%
Hybrid model • 25%
Other structural change • 25%
AGI clause removed, no additional changes • 25%
AGI clause removed, increased Microsoft investment • 25%
AGI clause remains, increased collaboration in other areas • 25%
No change in the partnership agreement • 25%
Remains non-profit • 25%
Becomes for-profit • 25%
Becomes public benefit corporation • 25%
Other restructuring outcome • 25%
Investment increases • 25%
Investment remains unchanged • 25%
Investment decreases • 25%
Investment withdrawn • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased competition • 25%
Accelerated innovation • 25%
Regulatory scrutiny • 25%
Market consolidation • 25%
New AI products launched • 25%
Improvement in existing AI products • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant new funding secured • 25%
Moderate new funding secured • 25%
No new funding secured • 25%
Partnership terminated • 25%
Sam Altman • 25%
Greg Brockman • 25%
Ilya Sutskever • 25%
Other • 25%
CEO steps down • 25%
Other executive changes • 25%
No leadership changes • 25%
Board changes • 25%
