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What changes will occur in OpenAI's corporate structure by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Remains non-profit • 25%
Fully transitions to for-profit • 25%
Hybrid model • 25%
Other structural change • 25%
Official announcements from OpenAI or changes in publicly available corporate documents
Story
Elon Musk Files Injunction Against OpenAI's For-Profit Move, Alleges Anti-Competitive Behavior
Dec 1, 2024, 03:32 AM
Elon Musk has filed a motion for a preliminary injunction to halt OpenAI's transition to a for-profit entity. Musk's legal action, filed in a US court, alleges that OpenAI is engaging in anti-competitive behavior by discouraging investors from backing rival companies like xAI. The injunction also seeks to prevent OpenAI from further attempts to convert to a for-profit company, arguing that such a move could harm competition and disrupt the AI landscape. Musk's attorneys claim that OpenAI's close partnership with Microsoft prioritizes profits over the public good, and that OpenAI has been improperly sharing information with Microsoft, potentially violating its original nonprofit mission to develop AI for humanity's benefit.
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Remains non-profit • 25%
Becomes for-profit • 25%
Becomes public benefit corporation • 25%
Other restructuring outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Nonprofit arm dissolved • 25%
Nonprofit arm remains unchanged • 25%
Nonprofit arm restructured • 25%
Nonprofit arm expanded • 25%
AGI clause removed, no additional changes • 25%
AGI clause removed, increased Microsoft investment • 25%
AGI clause remains, increased collaboration in other areas • 25%
No change in the partnership agreement • 25%
Successful with $150 billion valuation • 25%
Successful but less than $150 billion valuation • 25%
Unsuccessful with significant investor withdrawal • 25%
Unsuccessful but retains most investors • 25%
New board members added • 25%
Current structure maintained • 25%
Microsoft gains board seats • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Sam Altman • 25%
Greg Brockman • 25%
Ilya Sutskever • 25%
Other • 25%
Microsoft • 25%
Google • 25%
Amazon • 25%
Other • 25%
Increases above $157 billion • 25%
Decreases below $157 billion • 25%
Remains around $157 billion • 25%
Not publicly disclosed • 25%