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What changes will occur in Iran's nuclear and missile programs by October 2025?
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Emmanuel Macron•Iran•Macron•Middle East•Europe•Donald Trump•Tehran•Western•Russia•Ukraine war•Africa
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant acceleration • 25%
Significant deceleration • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or similar credible sources
Story
Macron Warns of Iran Nuclear Threat, Urges Snapback Sanctions Before October 2025
Jan 6, 2025, 01:07 PM
French President Emmanuel Macron warned that Iran's nuclear program is approaching the point of no return, bringing the situation to the brink of rupture. Speaking on Monday during an annual address to ambassadors, Macron described Iran as the main strategic and security challenge in the Middle East, Europe, and beyond. He emphasized the need for strategic discussions with President Donald Trump's administration regarding Tehran. Macron suggested that Western leaders should ask themselves whether to invoke the snapback mechanism to reimpose sanctions on Iran before its expiration in October 2025. He cited the acceleration of Iran's nuclear and missile programs, its military support for Russia in the Ukraine war, support for dangerous groups in the region, deployment of proxy forces in Africa, and involvement in terrorism as reasons for his concerns.
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Similar markets
Pursue nuclear weapons • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Decrease enrichment levels • 25%
Increase enrichment levels • 25%
Maintain current levels • 25%
Acceleration of nuclear development • 25%
Complete suspension of nuclear program • 25%
Continuation with increased transparency • 25%
No change in current policy • 25%
New sanctions imposed on Iran • 25%
Military intervention occurs • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Iran complies with nuclear deal terms • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Full compliance with international demands • 25%
Increase in enrichment activities • 25%
Decrease in enrichment activities • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
