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What changes in control of Syrian territory will occur by 2025 following Erdogan's announcement?
2
Tayyip Erdogan•Syria•Turkey•Justice and Development Party•AKP•Ankara•Erdogan•Syrian•Islamic State•ISIS•YPG•Assad regime
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased Turkish influence • 25%
Increased Syrian government control • 25%
Increased YPG control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Reports from international observers and news agencies
Story
Erdogan Vows to Crush ISIS and YPG in Syria Post-Assad, Urges Foreign Withdrawal
Jan 15, 2025, 10:12 AM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has issued a stern warning to all countries to cease their involvement in Syria, asserting that Turkey possesses the capability to decisively confront and eliminate all terrorist organizations within the country. Speaking at a parliamentary group meeting of his Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Ankara, Erdogan emphasized Turkey's readiness to collaborate with Syrian allies to crush groups such as the Islamic State (ISIS) and the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). He specifically highlighted the YPG's occupation of nearly one-third of Syrian territory and its exploitation of the nation's natural resources, stating that the group faces an inevitable end if it does not disband and surrender its arms. Erdogan's comments come in the wake of the fall of the Assad regime, with Turkey expressing its commitment to support the new Syrian administration in rebuilding efforts and addressing security concerns.
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Turkey gains more control • 25%
Other groups gain control • 25%
Stalemate with no change • 25%
PKK/YPG regain control • 25%
Stalemate with no change • 25%
SDF gains control • 25%
Turkish-backed forces gain control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other groups gain control • 25%
PKK/YPG gains control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Turkey gains control • 25%
Increased opposition control • 25%
Increased government control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Partial control • 25%
Stable control • 25%
Conflict escalation • 25%
Loss of control • 25%
Remain under Turkish influence • 25%
Returned to Syrian government control • 25%
Controlled by local Syrian groups • 25%
Other status • 25%
Syrian government • 25%
Other rebel groups • 25%
Coalition forces • 25%
HTS • 25%
No change in control • 25%
Full control by Syrian government • 25%
Partial control by Syrian government • 25%
Other groups gain control • 25%
Controlled by rebel groups • 25%
Controlled by Syrian government • 25%
Other/Unclear control • 25%
Controlled by Kurdish forces • 25%
Controlled by new Syrian government • 25%
Controlled by foreign powers • 25%
Mixed control • 25%
Controlled by rebel groups • 25%
Syrian government regains control • 25%
Turkey gains control • 25%
Control remains contested • 25%
YPG retains control • 25%