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What changes, if any, will occur in South Korean military leadership due to the intelligence leak by the end of 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
No changes • 25%
Resignation of key officials • 25%
Dismissal of key officials • 25%
Reorganization of military command • 25%
Official statement from South Korean government or military
Story
South Korea Probes Major Military Intelligence Leak of Agents Spying on North Korea
Jul 27, 2024, 01:20 PM
South Korea is investigating a significant leak from its military intelligence command. Local media reports indicate that the command has lost sensitive data, including information on its agents abroad, to North Korea. The investigation is focusing on the extent of the breach, the vetting info, and the potential damage to national security.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
New defense minister • 33%
New chief of general staff • 33%
No leadership change • 34%
Defense Minister replaced • 25%
New joint military committee • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other leadership changes • 25%
Cho Ji-ho Replaced • 25%
Kim Bong-sik Replaced • 25%
Both Replaced • 25%
Neither Replaced • 25%
New leader elected • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Temporary leadership • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Suspended • 25%
Not Suspended • 25%
Reinstated • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Increased military spending • 25%
Deployment of additional troops • 25%
Strengthening of alliances • 25%
No significant policy changes • 25%
Change in Russian military strategy • 25%
Change in North Korean leadership • 25%
No changes reported • 25%
Joint Russian-North Korean military strategy • 25%
Increased military readiness • 25%
New diplomatic initiatives • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Top general fired • 25%
Top general resigns • 25%
No change in top military leadership • 25%
Other change • 25%