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What will be the outcome of potential changes in the U.S. military leadership by end of 2024?
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Donald Trump•Mike Rogers•Department of Defense•DoD•Richard Farley•Securities and Exchange Commission•SEC•Pentagon•Trump•New York Post•Farley•Washington
Resolution / Starting Odds
Top general fired • 25%
Top general resigns • 25%
No change in top military leadership • 25%
Other change • 25%
Official announcements from the Department of Defense or verified news outlets
Story
Trump May Fire General, Considers Mike Rogers for DoD and Richard Farley for SEC Chair, Sources Say
Nov 8, 2024, 09:20 PM
Former President Donald Trump is reportedly considering significant changes to his administration's leadership, including the potential appointment of Representative Mike Rogers to lead the Department of Defense (DoD) and lawyer Richard Farley as the new chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). These developments come amid concerns from Pentagon officials regarding Trump's possible decision to fire the military’s top general. Sources indicate that the Trump team is actively evaluating these candidates, with reports from the New York Post confirming the discussions around Farley for SEC chair. The political landscape remains tense as various factions within Washington express their apprehensions about Trump's potential moves.
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Increased civilian oversight • 25%
Increased military autonomy • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Reversal of board decisions • 25%
Order fully implemented • 25%
Order partially implemented • 25%
Order blocked by legal challenges • 25%
Order withdrawn • 25%
Positive • 33%
Negative • 33%
Neutral • 34%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Chief of Army Staff replaced • 33%
Chief of Defense Staff replaced • 33%
No changes • 34%
Major restructuring • 25%
Minor changes • 25%
No changes • 25%
Unclear • 25%
New Defense Minister appointed • 25%
Another senior military official removed • 25%
No major changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Sergei Shoigu replaced • 25%
Valery Gerasimov replaced • 25%
Both replaced • 25%
Neither replaced • 25%
New defense minister • 33%
New chief of general staff • 33%
No leadership change • 34%
Defense Minister replaced • 25%
Chief of General Staff replaced • 25%
Both replaced • 25%
No change • 25%
0-4 • 25%
5-9 • 25%
10-14 • 25%
15 or more • 25%
